Determining Your Normal Upward Fluctuation Range

Day 347

After another day of weight gain, my bad streak continues. I don’t really have any answers right now as to what is going on. But since the gain is really not all that much (76.7 to 77.5 kg), it doesn’t seem like there is a strong reason to get worried yet. However, this is approaching a gain of 2 pounds, which is close to the mark where I may have to get more concerned about my diet and exercise plan. I haven’t come up with a phrase for this tracking measure. Let’s just call it the “normal upward fluctuation range.”

I say 2 pounds of gain (as my normal fluctuation range) is enough to start worrying simply because my Pentamize tracking shows that such an increase seems pretty normal. But once I start getting above that without any cheat or break days, then it seems excessive because it’s an unusual amount. This number may be different for you, depending upon your normal calorie intake, your body weight, and other factors. So don’t take the 2-pound figure as necessarily being the same for you. This is a number that you will have to develop after extensive Pentamize tracking. So about 2 to 2.5 pounds is what I consider to be my normal upward fluctuation range. It could be 1, 3 pounds, or even 5 pounds for you. It will probably take literally months of daily tracking before you wil get an idea of what your normal upward fluctuation range is. If you see yourself often gaining up to 3 pounds and then you start losing again on a regular basis, then 3 pounds is probably your range if you have months of tracking and see that it almost never goes substantially above that mark. You should just look for an estimated normal upward fluctuation range, not perfect average. A true average is pretty much impossible because your body goes through so many changes that one year’s range may be totally different 5 years later. So you want to do Pentamize tracking on a regular basis to keep tabs on possible changes.

Looking at the current situation, I don’t understand why I am gaining weight. But again, it’s basically impossible to know why you have a small upward gain, including whether it’s just normal. But establishing a normal upward range is good because you will know when to start getting concerned. Once you exceed that range, then you know that it’s at least more likely that you have an actual problem with your diet or exercise. Then, you can start modifying things and see what happens.

For now, I am going to continue doing the same thing. I will run 90 minutes in the morning. Diet wise, I have not done so well so far today. I rose to about 79.8 kg at 4:30 in the afternoon (79.9 before going to the bathroom). However, it’s not terrible because that is 2.4 kg over the starting weight of 77.5. But it does not mean that I have to stop eating for the rest of the day. I usually don’t finish at 4 in the afternoon. But it’s time to sacrifice because I ate too much earlier in the day.

At 9:30 at night, I was still sitting at about 79.6 kg. This is not looking good. I don’t even know how I could go 5 hours and lose only .3 kg. But this hopefully means the weight will drop off overnight.

Actually, my weight dropped quickly over the next couple of hours. I was about 79.1 when going to bed close to 2.5 hours later. That was a great drop, but it was followed by another ridiculously low drop overnight. I woke up and was 78.7. My jaw almost dropped this time, as that is only .4 kg of loss overnight. I guess it may be time to just get used to this overnight thing and make any necessary adjustments. At this point, any adjustments will have to be with diet because my total amount of exercise is well over an hour a day on average. I can’t really add more.

Despite what I am saying here, I actually expect to lose weight today despite the low overnight drop. I woke up at 6:45 in the morning, which is several hours before time to run. So this should be a solid day to get below my starting mark of 77.5 kg. The drop to 79.1 before bedtime is what helped me a lot today. This is a good example of why I say that overnight weight loss is only one factor in the equation. If you do well in other factors, such as weight lost during waking hours (this measure also varies from day to day but is hard to track because you are eating in the same time period), it can make up for poor overnight results.

About 2 hours later, I had lost another .2 kg, down to 78.5 kg. This is a good pace so far. But it’s about time to run. So I will need to lose more than 1.0 kg to lose weight on the day. Although it’s not 100% certain, that should be doable with a 90-minute run.

I dropped even more to about 78.3 by 10 in the morning. Things are starting to look really good now. But it’s still going to depend on the results of my jogging session.

The run result was absurd this time. I ran at a heart rate of about 130 to 140 (estimated) for almost the whole run. Yet, I only lost 1.0 kg for some reason. It was raining for most of the session, though. I have experienced low weight loss before when it was raining. Maybe that was a factor today, too. At any rate, that was good enough to lose .2 kg today, with a finishing weight of 77.3 kg. Achieving that after the ridiculous weight loss of only .4 kg overnight is certainly a success in my book.

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